Tuesday, April 24, 2007

NFL Mock Draft: The Final Version

Folks, we've almost reached that point in the year to say goodbye to Mel Kiper's hair as a regular staple on ESPN. As the NFL Draft approaches, it's time to crank out the final mock draft. A three round whirlwind of potential Hall of Famers and Hall of Lamers. I think that this draft could be full of trades in the first round, but I don't get into the business of projecting them. After the draft, I will do an analysis that will rock your world harder than a hit from Patrick Willis.

Round 1
1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
After spurning Leinart last year, they can't afford to spurn their number one need any longer. Russell can immediately step in as a leader on offense and a calming influence. He always seems cool and collected. I'm not buying the thought that they will take Georgia Tech WR, and widely agreed upon best player, Calvin Johnson. They would rather trade this pick to stockpile selections to fill their mass amount of needs on both sides of the ball.
2. Detroit Lions - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
Detroit would also like to trade down to 4 or 5 to take Adams, but they will likely end up with him here. Although OT Joe Thomas is a strong possibility, this draft has a few tackles with potential to develop into an anchor, so they can wait. Adams is the best end of the draft and reminds me of a former Marinelli pro-bowler, Simeon Rice. If Detroit ends up with WR Calvin Johnson, expect the Bucs to take Adams at number 4.
3. Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
The Browns have a lot of different directions they could go with this pick. I believe that Quinn will be the eventual selection, notwithstanding a trade down. Adrian Peterson would be a good choice, but with the signing of Jamal Lewis from Baltimore, they can afford to take a running back later on day 1. Quinn would compete for the starting job with incumbent Charlie Frye, but will likely break camp as the winner.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
Although the Bucs have more glaring needs, specifically youth and depth on defense and talent along the offensive line, it'll be hard for Gruden to pass on such a dynamic talent. Johnson is considered the best and safest pick in this draft; he possesses a rare combination of size, speed and ball skill. Thomas, DT Amobi Okoye or Alan Branch and S LaRon Landry will also be thought about here.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
Arizona is a prime example of a team that is solid all round but could upgrade in a lot of places. Start with the offensive line, where they lost LT Leonard Davis this off-season. Thomas can immediately step in as the starter to protect Leinart and The Edge. Any players to fill spots along the defensive front seven will be considered here. If Thomas is gone, they could try to trade down and grab Penn State OT Levi Brown in the middle of the first round.
6. Washington Redskins - Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
The Redskins had a horrible pass rush last year, and one of the reasons was a lack of pressure up the middle. Okoye is a young player who still has plenty of room for improvement but will also be able to start right away. He's over 300 lbs. now, but he still has the speed and agility to get to the QB. Arkansas DE Jamaal Anderson and Michigan DT/DE Alan Branch will also be possibilities here.
7. Minnesota Vikings - Ted Ginn Jr., WR/RS, Ohio State
After taking a raw and speedy wide receiver in Troy Williamson and failing, the Vikes will undoubtedly do it again. I'm not trying to compare Ginn to Williamson, because at least we know Ginn can see the ball, but this won't be a good pick. Ginn won't be ready to start for a few years, and that won't help the Vikes incumbent ball slinger, Tarvaris Jackson. The Vikes should be looking at Adrian Peterson or defensive line help with this pick.
8. Atlanta Falcons - LaRon Landry, S, LSU
Don't be surprised if new head coach, and power running advocate, Bobby Petrino stretches for OT Brown here because Brown fits the profile of Petrino's ground game. He should be talked down, and talked into taking arguably the safest and most talented defensive player in this draft, Landry. Landry was a four year starter at a school known for its defensive dominance and will be ready to start in the NFL. Signing veteran WR Joe Horn doesn't make WR a need until day 2, leaving the Falcons the rest of day 1 to draft lineman as they please.
9. Miami Dolphins - Alan Branch, DL, Michigan
Alan Branch is a big boy. Standing at 324 lbs. and nearly 6-6, he's a stopper in the middle and will require more than one blocker. He's not especially agile, his only real move being a bull rush, but his size makes him effective at what he does. His effort and work ethic has been questioned, but he will become a dominating force if a coach can light a fire under him.
10. Houston Texans - Adrian Peterson, HB, Oklahoma
I'm still not ready to concede that Mario Williams over Reggie Bush was the wrong move. Bush would've been very ineffective in Houston, where the supporting cast is nothing like the cast that New Orleans has. But in light of the struggling ground game, the Texans could use such a dynamic talent like Peterson. Peterson will likely only be a two-down back at first, struggling in both the pass catching and pass blocking areas, but has room to develop. Peterson would walk into camp as the starter and walk out as the savior for the franchise.
11. San Francisco 49er's - Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
If you have read any of my draft blogs at all, you know by now that I'm infatuated with Adam Carriker. He has such a great blend of size [6-6, 291], speed [4.72], and hands. He's my second rated defensive end, barely ahead of Jamaal Anderson and behind Adams. Carriker will be able to start right away for the 49er's and can dominate the backfield. San Fran will also look for a WR and secondary help.
12. Buffalo Bills - Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
Losing London Fletcher-Baker hurt, but Angelo Crowell can move to the inside if they don't find a replacement later. Where the Bills are really hurting is CB, where the free agency departure of Nate Clements is going to make an impact than any loss at linebacker. Terrence McGee will never be an above average starter, but Ashton Youboty still isn't ready either. Hall will likely break camp as the number one corner on the roster. The Bills also need a halfback, a receiver or two and help along the offensive line.
13. St. Louis Rams - Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
The Rams are in the market for any of the top defensive lineman. If one of the two elite DT's drop to this spot, they'll take them. Otherwise, they should go with the best end available, which in this case is the big, fast and productive Arkansas end. St. Louis also needs to draft for depth at about every other position on defense. And expect them to take a WR on the first day, as Holt and Bruce aren't getting any younger. A running back wouldn't be a bad selection either, as depth behind starter Stephen Jackson is suspect at best.
14. Carolina Panthers - Patrick Willis, ILB, Mississippi
Willis is a sideline-to-sideline style 'backer with amazing speed and fantastic tackling ability. He also has the ability to take on blockers and he doesn't shy away from the opportunity. Willis also excels at reading and reacting to the ball and making the plays at the point of contact. A big-bodied wide receiver and a safety should be added on the first day as well.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State
Timmons will one day be a fantastic linebacker in Mike Tomlin's new scheme. Until then, he can specialize as a pass rusher and backfield playmaker. Although athletically Timmons is a monster, he only has one year of starting under his belt and his technique could use some refining. Pittsburgh needs to address depth in the secondary and in the backfield, but don't be surprised if they sneak in a WR somewhere if they've believed one has slid.
16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
As of now, Vernand Morency is lined up for the starting job with Noah Herron as the back up. That isn't what I'd call a fantastic backfield. Morency is an average second stringer, and Herron can have his moments. Lynch is a powerful runner who has the quickness to break runs outside if the hole closes. Depth at receiver and safety will also need to be filled early.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
Nelson is a ballhawking, centerfield safety who likes to compare himself to John Lynch. Nelson is much more athletic than Lynch, as I would have a hard time seeing Lynch run a 4.35 40. Nelson can deliver hits like Lynch though, instead of using power like Lynch he uses bursts of speed to explode into his victims. Jacksonville also needs a receiver and someone to fill the whole at free safety.
18. Cincinnati Bengals - Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
Revis, along with Arkansas's Chris Houston, has elevated his draft status immensely since the end of the season. The Bengals can use Revis's athleticism and run support on the edge. Even though he's not a big guy [5-11, 196], he takes on blockers and can take down backs. He might not be able to start right away, but he has the talent to be a pro bowler.
19. Tennessee Titans - Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
Bowe is a big and fast wide receiver who knows how to use his body when going up for a ball. He's a deep threat that is also tough over the middle, but he needs to work on breaking tackles. Bowe should be able to team up with QB Vince Young to make a dynamic duo. With Pacman being suspended, the Titans need to draft a safety or corner in the second. They also need another running back with Travis Henry in Denver now.
20. N.Y. Giants - Joe Staley, OT, Michigan State
David Diehl should not be a starting left tackle in the NFL. Enter Joe Staley, who is still a little raw, but extremely talented and should settle into his role in no time. He's a big and fast tackle, but it wouldn't hurt him to add some muscle to his frame. The Giants also have a big need at cornerback and could use a rusher in their front seven.
21. Denver Broncos - Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB, Purdue
The Broncos would love to trade up to get one of the elite defensive ends, Adams, Carriker or Anderson, but with that not likely, they should be content to add Spencer, who is the pass rusher they are looking for. If they want to put him at linebacker, they'll need to improve his cover skills, as that is the weakest part in his game. They could also use youth on the offensive line and depth in the secondary.
22. Dallas Cowboys - Robert Meachum, WR, Tennessee
Meachum is a receiver comparable to Bowe. They both have that unique blend of size and speed. Where Meachum struggles and Bowe excels is running routes. Meachum's hands can also be inconsistent and he has a tendency to drop the ball if he hears footsteps. After this pick, new coach Wade Phillips will likely stock his defense with players that fit into his system.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
The Chiefs are desperate for tackles, as of now, Chris Terry is penciled in on the right and Damion McIntosh on the left. Brown is polished enough to step in and start at either spot right away. His motivation and work ethic have been questioned, but he could end up like the Vikings Bryant McKinnie, a dominate, pro bowl caliber player that gets lazy. The Chiefs also need to add depth on defense and a backup for Larry Johnson. Michael Bennett is a good change-of-pace back, but should Johnson go down, they'll struggle on the ground.
24. New England Patriots [via Seattle] - Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB, Florida
Moss fits into the Pats profile of versatile, athletic defensive players that can do various things well. Moss projects as a situational pass rusher off the edge early in his career, but at 6-6, 258 lbs., he has the quickness and size to play linebacker. The Pats have two first rounders, so don't be shocked if they try to deal up for the elite Calvin Johnson.
25. N.Y. Jets - Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee
After drafting offense early last year, the Jets could benefit from focusing on defense. Dewayne Robertson had problems last year freeing up the dynamic Jonathan Vilma, and depth at DT is suspect. Harrell has the size to take up two blockers, even though he isn't especially explosive or quick. The Jets would also benefit from a cornerback, which would make Justin Miller expendable if they found another returner.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami-FL
Sean Considine is more valuable as a versatile, backup safety, not as a starter. Meriweather is one of my favorite players in this draft, he's a ballhawk that can cover and knows how to tackle. He's on the small side, but he packs a punch and knows how to wrap up. Philadelphia also needs depth in their front seven and a backup to Westbrook, as the oft-injured Buckhalter can't be counted upon.
27. New Orleans Saints - Jon Beason, LB, Miami-Fl
The Saints are yet to address their need at linebacker, and Beason would be a good fit. Beason is still has room to develop, and needs to harness his aggressiveness, but that will come with time. He should develop into a three down linebacker that consistently disrupts the backfield. The Saints also need help up front on defense, and could use a wide out with Joe Horn gone.
28. New England Patriots - Ben Grubbs, G, Auburn
The Patriots love to take lineman, and Grubbs would fit nicely, likely replacing RG Stephen Neal. Grubbs is a smart player who moves well and is effective in traps and pulls. In pass protection, he needs to work on his punch, which isn't very effective.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Paul Posluszny, OLB, Penn State
Posluszny is a solid 'backer against the run and pass. He is the type of high-character player that GM Ozzie Newsome usually goes after. He's fast enough to stay with tight ends and running backs wherever they go and he's strong enough to take on blockers. He may never develop into a consistent pro bowler like Timmons and Beason have the potential to, but there is no doubt he'll be an effective starter for years. The Ravens have numerous other needs to address, like a left tackle to develop behind Jonathan Ogden and a quarterback to develop behind Steve McNair.
30. San Diego Chargers - Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
At the beginning of the season, Rice will be able to provide the Bolts with what they need the most, a deep threat to stretch the field. As he continues to progress and learn how to use his height [6-3 1/2], he should become a dependable over the middle target as well. Matching up against him and 6-5 Vincent Jackson will be hell for opposing coaches. San Diego also needs to find a safety, where the legal troubles of Terrance Kiel opened a hole.
31. Chicago Bears - Greg Olsen, TE, Miami-Fl
Olsen is the cream of this years tight end crop, the only one likely to go in the first round. He's got everything that teams are looking for in the new breed of tight ends; size, speed and strength [6-6, 255, 4.55]. He needs to refine his pass protection, but he should start immediately for the Bears who lack a presence at tight end. The Bears also need to draft depth at defensive tackle and offensive line.
32. Indianapolis Colts - Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
The team lost cornerbacks Nick Harper and Jason David this offseason, making it a position they need to draft for. Marlin Jackson will make a good #1, but Kelvin Hayden isn't ready to start full time yet. Ross is a good fit in the Tampa 2 and should be able to break camp as the starter. The Colts also need a backup running back for Joseph Addai and depth at wide receiver.

Round 2
33. Oakland Raiders - Justin Blalock, G, Texas
34. Detroit Lions - David Harris, ILB, Michigan
35. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DeMarcus "Tank" Tyler, DT, N.C. State
36. Cleveland Browns - Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
37. Chicago Bears [from WAS via NYJ] - Brandon Mebane, DT, California
38. Arizona Cardinals - Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
39. Atlanta Falcons [from HOU] - Arron Sears, G, Tennessee
40. Miami Dolphins - Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford
41. Minnesota Vikings - Ikaika Alama-Francis, DE, Hawaii
42. San Francisco 49er's - Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
43. Buffalo Bills - Tony Ugoh, OT, Arkansas
44. Atlanta Falcons - Aundrae Allison, WR, East Carolina
45. Carolina Panthers - Michael Griffin, S, Texas
46. Pittsburgh Steelers - Tanard Jackson, CB, Syracuse
47. Green Bay Packers - Steve Smith, WR, USC
48. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ray McDonald, DE, Florida
49. Cincinnati Bengals - Zach Miller, TE, Arizona State
50. Tennessee Titans - Aaron Rouse, S, Virginia Tech
51. N.Y. Giants - Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State
52. St. Louis Rams - Jason Hill, WR, Washington State
53. Dallas Cowboys - Rufus Alexander, OLB, Oklahoma
54. Kansas City Chiefs - Brian Leonard, FB, Rutgers
55. Seattle Seahawks - Antonio Pittman, HB, Ohio State
56. Denver Broncos - James Marten, OT, Boston College
57. Philadelphia Eagles - Victor Abiamiri, DE, Notre Dame
58. New Orleans Saints - Paul Soliai, DT, Utah
59. N.Y. Jets - Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal
60. Miami Dolphins [via NE] - Ryan Harris, OT, Notre Dame
61. Baltimore Ravens - Allen Babre, OT, Missouri Southern
62. San Diego Chargers - Eric Weddle, S, Utah
63. N.Y. Jets [via Chicago] - Uche Nwaneri, G, Purdue
64. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [via IND] - Josh Gattis, S, Wake Forest

Round 3
65. Oakland Raiders - Baraka Atkins, DE, Miami
66. Detroit Lions - Kevin Kolb, QB, Houston
67. Cleveland Browns - Chris Henry, HB, Arizona
68. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Ryan Kalil, C, USC
69. Arizona Cardinals - Zac DeOssie, ILB, Brown
70. Denver Broncos [via WAS] - Justin Durant, ILB, Hampton
71. Miami Dolphins - Steve Breaston, WR/RS, Michigan
72. Minnesota Vikings - John Beck, QB, BYU
73. Houston Texans - Marshal Yanda, OT, Iowa
74. Buffalo Bills - Kenny Irons, HB, Auburn
75. Atlanta Falcons - Michael Bush, HB, Louisville
76. San Francisco 49er's - Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
77. Pittsburgh Steelers - Brandon Jackson, HB, Nebraska
78. Green Bay Packers - Kevin Payne, S, Louisiana-Monroe
79. Jacksonville Jaguars - Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio State
80. Tennessee Titans - Lorenzo Booker, HB, Florida State
81. N.Y. Giants - Stewart Bradley, OLB, Nebraska
82. St. Louis Rams - Kenneth Darby, HB, Alabama
83. Carolina Panthers - Dallas Baker, WR, Florida
84. Kansas City Chiefs - David Clowney, WR, Virginia Tech
85. Seattle Seahawks - Marcus Thomas, DT, Florida
86. Denver Broncos - John Wendling, S, Wyoming
87. Dallas Cowboys - Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan State
88. New Orleans Saints - Craig Davis, WR, LSU
89. N.Y. Jets - Laurent Robinson, WR/RS, Illinois State
90. Philadelphia Eagles - Dwayne Wright, HB, Fresno State
91. New England Patriots - Josh Wilson, CB, Maryland
92. Buffalo Bills [via BAL] - H.B. Blades, ILB, Pittsburgh
93. San Diego Chargers - Ryan McBean, DL, Oklahoma State
94. Chicago Bears - Jacoby Jones, WR, Lane
95. Indianapolis Colts - Daniel Parrish, OT, Florida A&M
96. San Diego Chargers [comp.] - Samson Satele, C, Hawaii
97. San Francisco 49er's [comp.] - Buster Davis, ILB, Florida State
98. Indianapolis Colts [comp.] - Danny Ware, HB, Georgia
99. Oakland Raiders [comp.] - Paul Williams, WR, Fresno State

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